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This Week With George Stephanopoulos

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Pennsylvania 16, Obama 11, Sandy 10, Ohio 9, Virginia 8, Wisconsin 8, Washington 8, Us 7, New York 6, Iowa 6, Florida 6, Gillespie 6, America 5, David Plouffe 5, California 5, Colorado 5, Nevada 5, Abc 4, Mitt Romney 4, Philadelphia 4,
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  ABC    This Week With George Stephanopoulos    News/Business. Political guests  
   and viewpoints. New. (HD) (CC)  

    November 4, 2012
    10:00 - 11:00am EST  

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good morning and welcome to a special election edition of "this week." [ crowd chanting "four more years" ] it is here. after two years -- >> i'm mitt romney and i'm running for president of the united states. >> we're not going back. we are moving this country forward. >> more than $2 billion. >> this man has courage in his soul and a spine of steel. >> what is missing is >> what is missing is leadership in the white house. >> just two days to go in this historic campaign. in these final hours, is obama closing with a kick? do romney's last-minute moves signal confidence or desperation? how has hurricane sandy changed the race? and will we know the winner tuesday night? we'll ask our headliners. obama's top white house strategist david plouffe.
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and romney's senior adviser ed gillespie. and our powerhouse roundtable. george will, cokie roberts, donna brazile, matthew dowd and ronald brownstein of the national journal. hello again. this is it. just hours to go before the final votes and for so many americans, up 40% of voters, election day has already come and gone. a new record that has already led to long lines like these at polling places across the country. some good news in the early vote. that makes sense. the race has been tight from the start. today, it could not be closer. our brand-new abc news/washington post poll shows an absolute dead-heat. 48%.
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still, in those battleground states, a small but steady lead for president obama and it's in the battlegrounds especially those midwestern states of iowa, wisconsin and ohio, where the candidates are making their closing arguments. >> the american auto industry is back on top. osama bin laden is dead. we have made real progress. but, we are here today because we know we got more work to do. >> the question in this election is this, do you want to stay on the course that we are on or do you want real change? because we represent real change. with that, let's hear from the campaign's top strategists. david plouffe and ed gillespie. david, let me begin with you. i know that you have been steadily confident throughout this campaign. but you saw our abc news/washington post poll still absolutely deadlocked. 48-48. how can you remain so confident? >> well, george, we have always known that this was going to be a very close race.
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but it is going to be decided in the battle ground states. we have an important lead in those states. early voting has gone very well for us. we think we're closing with strong momentum. the president is having terrific events out there. i'm confident that the president will be re-elected. we have the support to win this election. we have to make sure that it materializes in votes. and that's the challenge over the next two days is to make sure we're getting all of the supporters to the polls. so much of the past few days defined by hurricane sandy. the president receiving praise from sandy. some pretty harsh criticism from the former mayor of new york, rudy giuliani. >> i don't know what he was doing in the nevada. if i was president of the united states, i wouldn't be flitting around the west and midwest.
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i feel pretty offended seeing my president floating around, campaigning while people are suffering. >> your response? >> well, mayor giuliani is running around the country campaigning for mitt romney and popping off. the people in new york and new jersey, they're working with this president and this administration, fema, every day, and our focus needs to be. really, the country has been united. mayor giuliani may be the exception to this. focus on recovery. making sure we stand by those who lost so much and need to recover. this will take a long time. the federal government's doing all they can to partner with state and local officials. we flew power equipment from california to help restore power, getting fuel into the area, and direct assistance to help with food and lodging. this is going to take a while. we're doing everything we can that we stand by the people in the eastern seaboard. >> your predecessor karl rove, top strategist for george w. bush, has said that hurricane sandy the last week, has helped give the president a real boost
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politically? >> listen, we're not worried about the politics. we're worried about doing the right thing by those acted by the race. we think this has been a stable race. i think karl rove might have said that, because a few days ago he predicted a big romney win. listen, we're confident that the president has the electoral votes to win this, if we get our vote out. and that's what we're focused on. >> you remain so confident. you talked about the firewall. ohio, iowa and wisconsin. but we're seeing mitt romney going to pennsylvania today. i know you and a lot of democrats think that's a desperation move. but some of the polls are tightening right there. and it is a state that you haven't invested a lot of resources, are you worried at all? >> george, we have a great organization in pennsylvania. much better than mitt romney. we have been working it for two years. a great organization, great volunteers. this is a desperate ploy at the
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end of the campaign. for romney to win, he'll have to win two-thirds of the independents. the truth is, they're throwing some ads up and governor romney is traveling into states that he's not going to win. but what really matters in terms of the electoral college, we're the ones playing offense. few weeks ago, governor romney's campaign was saying we're going to win florida and virginia. on monday, the day before the election, governor romney is going to florida and virginia, why, because he's at great risk to lose those states. we're playing offense on states they thought they had the inside track on and they don't. i think a lot of this is a smoke screen to try and mask the fact in the places that will play a factor, it's going to be close. but they're definitely in a weak position heading into election day. >> so, is there anything that worries you in these final 48 hours? >> sure, george. listen, four years ago, when this time two days out, everybody felt we were sailing to victory. we were very concerned.
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because support levels don't mean anything if they don't materialize into votes. the president and first lady, former president clinton is going to be with us in new hampshire. but this really comes down to our amazing volunteers. our staff out in the field who have to make sure the people who support the president exercise their right to vote. that's our biggest task right now from a political standpoint is, to make sure we get our vote out. >> finally, even the president wins, his margins will be smaller than last time around. that doesn't that mean less of a mandate. and won't that make it harder for the president to succeed in the second term? >> as soon as the election is over, we got to move on to the pressing business. we got some fiscal and tax issues in front of us. we'll got a lot of potential to do some great things on education. so, no, i think that -- you know, we need to try and have compromise and balance.
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if those two things are presence, we'll be able to solve our long term deficit challenge. create jobs in the short term and that the's question build on the progress that we have seen? are we going to take a risk in going back to on the policies? >> david plouffe, thanks very much. >> thanks, george. and with that, let's go to ed gillespie for the romney campaign. you heard david plouffe right there. his closing argument, governor romney would be an enormous risk. >> and that we're doing better. we should build on the progress that we made. the fact is, george, the unemployment rate today is higher than the day president obama took office. 23 million americans struggling to find work. the household income down by $4,300. that's what this campaign is about. them saying, you know, we need to keep doing this. we need more of the same. essentially, we need four more
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years. like the last four years. and governor romney promising real change. you know, in terms of president obama's policies, if he's re-elected, he'll establish a secretary of business. he thinks that somehow is going to help foster job creation when governor romney has been talking for months now about his five-point plan to grow the middle class with greater -- unleashing domestic energy supply, balancing the budget, tax reforms, greater trade. you know, we have a very strong agenda that's resonating with the american people. that's why he's going to win on tuesday. >> you heard david plouffe's assessment of the battleground states now. they believe they're in a strong position with that iowa, ohio and wisconsin firewall, and you all are playing defense in virginia and florida and a desperate ploy in pennsylvania. your response. >> four years ago, it's an amazing juxtaposition that mitt romney will be in the suburbs of philadelphia today, and four
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years ago, barack obama was in indiana. when you look at where this map has gone, it reflects the change and the direction and the momentum toward governor romney and the fact is, a state like pennsylvania being in play, a poll out today, showing michigan dead heat. you know, the map has expanded. wisconsin, minnesota, has expanded our way, we feel very confident in terms of where we are in the target states. we have been able to expand into pennsylvania while fully funding and staying current with everything we need to be doing in florida and virginia and ohio and all of the other target states. but i think what you're seeing, george, when you listen to your previous guest and he talks about the ground game, ground game, they constantly talk about that and they're doing conference calls all the time on this. their assumption seems to be these undecided voters, the president and governor romney are about 47% in these
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polls, they're not going to turn out and therefore, prevail because of their superior ground game versus ours. number one, their ground game is not superior. number two, i think those undecided voters are going to turn out. and they're going to break pretty strongly against the president. >> when you see the polls in the battleground states most show the president holding a quite small, but steady, lead in many of the key battlegrounds. you think those state polls have some bias in them? >> well, it depends on which ones. there was a poll in virginia, as you know, my home state that had the president winning by 2 percentage points. i think it was 47-45 and governor romney winning the independent vote by 21 percentage points. now, i can tell you, george, if governor romney wins independents by 21 percentage points on tuesday, he won't lose to president obama on tuesday. one of the other networks had
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ohio, had obama ahead. a plus-nine percentage points democratic advantage. that would be a bigger margin for president obama in 2012 than he enjoyed in 2008. i just don't buy it. i don't see it. i actually believe when i look at the data at where the president is, when you're the incumbent president of the united states and you're at 48% on your ballot two days before the election, you're in deep trouble. that's where they are today. and i don't -- i believe, when i look at the intensity numbers and being on the road for three days with governor romney and the crowds, and when i look at the undecideds, i believe that romney can win decisively. in these final days, so much of the northeast impacted by hurricane sandy. you heard mayor giuliani in the previous segment, the president has also received some praise. most voters according to our polls handled the hurricane as well as he could. does governor romney have any quarrel with the way the president has handled the hurricane?
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>> from what we heard from the governors, they're working well with fema. there's a good working relationship between the state and the federal government. governor romney has asked our supporters, fellow americans who are in need, armed by this devastating hurricane, we have constantly and consistently asked people to donate to the red cross and to the salvation army and put that information up at the events. governor romney turned some of our volunteer centers into collection centers. we are keeping those hurt by the storm in our prayers and in our thoughts and trying not to keep them in our thoughts and actions as well. >> do you agree with karl rove that the president's response has helped him political in the last week? >> i just don't know. you know, we're very focused on highlights the difference in this election. governor romney is closing very strong, with a big speech about
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the differences that would happen in the next four years. i think, when you look at where these two candidates are going and what they're saying it, reflects kind of the strategy, president obama to ask for revenge. governor romney asking to vote for love of country. a very sharp contrast. this gets back to their desire. their assessment they need to still energize core democratic voters. in your poll today, george, there is a difference in intensity between self-identified republicans and self-identified democrats. by 6 percentage points. republicans they're certain to vote relative to the democrats. and what i hear from the president is kind of an energizing the base message. governor romney has a much bigger message that resonates strongly with the undecided out there. >> ed gillespie, thanks for your time this morning. >> thank you. our powerhouse roundtable is standing by. that conversation kicks off in just 90 seconds. ♪
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absolute beating. >> up to 100 homes have been decimated and left in a rubble that's still smoking today. >> you don't understand, you got to get your trucks here on this corner! we're going to die! we're going to freeze! we got 90-year-old people. >> you're going to okay. >> my youngest daughter said yesterday, i want to go home. i said, it's going to be a while, honey. hurricane sandy this week affecting so many millions in the northeast. back now with the powerhouse roundtable. the political impact as well. we're joined by george will, cokie roberts, ron brownstein, our political analyst matthew dowd and donna brazile. george, that was a bit of a surprise in this final week. but now we're coming into this final week, both campaigns back to full speed campaigning. do you see either side having momentum in these final 48 hours? >> if there's a momentum change, it's due to hurricane.
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which would have slowed romney's momentum. i'm not sure people after nine months of campaigning are paying attention to this. david axelrod said that presidential campaign is an mri for a soul. at the end, you know the soul of both these guys. i think the country knows, this is a choice not an echo collection. they're ready to vote. >> some have already voted. >> matthew, dowd you look at our poll, 48-48. today, you go back six months, almost exactly the same. >> the most interesting thing about this, which is why it's very akin to 2004, the stability of this race, there was no romney momentum after that first debate. he took back three, four points. that race went to where it was. it stayed there for flee weeks. i do believe that sandy has had an effect. monday morning, mitt romney would have won the popular vote and electoral vote. what happened during the course
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of this week, because of the president's handling on it. you could see a slight change in his approval rating. slight change in his favorability. >> the president has been at that 50. >> that's an important number. because we know that presidents can get re-elected at that it happened again in 2004. you really felt this week, like the air went out of the romney balloon. from the first debate on, it was just blowing up and up and up. and even though the numbers weren't changing that much, there was a real sense of movement in that campaign. >> ron brownstein, a question that i just asked ed gillespie. you see that especially in these state polls which shows the consistent lead for the president. but you also heard ed gillespie there. they think there's something fundamentally wrong with those polls. >> they think it's going to be a
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different electorate. republicans equaled democrats as a share of the vote on election day. in a presidential election. that was a country, though, george, that was 77% of the voters in 2004 were white. we're talking about an election this time, it's going to be 74%, 73% or 72%. you see two very different coalitions for the president. sun belt, he's growing up on the minority population and women. states like virginia and florida. in the rust belt, however, in that firewall of ohio, iowa and wisconsin, he's running significantly better than anywhere else in the country among those blue-collar workers. -- blue-collar white voters. the last line of defense that romney hasn't been able to get over. >> well, george, thank you. i think president obama has regained his aptitude following that first debate. he has a slight tailwind in these battleground states. i have been to many of them. people are so enthusiastic.
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six months ago, i couldn't get anyone to return my call. they were like, stop it. but they're not just only returning calls they're bringing people to the polls. the polling stations opened for five hours and people are going out and they're voting early. >> the long lines at the polls are really something. >> the problem with the romney campaign's theory of the race and what ed said, the problem is, are you going to believe me or your lying eyes? their theory is, when you feel a losing campaign, these three things happen. the first thing happens, don't believe that the public polls are wrong. the second thing is, we're going to change the nature of the electorate. and you're not seeing it refl t reflected in the polls. and the third thing, the only poll that counts is election day. >> but the polls are all over the map. >> no, they're not. >> they're so consistent. >> rasmussen are much more encouraging to romney than the others. in fact, there are campaigns in this country today that hire two
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polltakers because they're not sure what they can get from one. >> george, there are 23 polls, 21 are in the president's favor. >> this is our first presidential since citizens united. we began with the talk of power money that was going to be unleashed. obama's campaign spends a billion. romney campaign spends a billion. >> concentrated spending. >> $5 billion over five white women in ohio. that's right. but, it has been very helpful to the tv stations. >> and 67 superpacs have sprung over the last 30 days. it's not making a difference. >> it could make a difference in the senate and the house races. >> and the reality is, you're going to see a lot of republicans come out and you're going to see enormous racial
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polarization in this race. 40% of white vote, in your poll this morning, 38 and 78. right on the tipping point. >> but, ron, i want to bring that question to matthew dowd. when you look at it and you see how sophisticated each side is, how much money they both had, are we into an era now where almost every presidential election is going to be this close? >> well, if you take a look at 3 of the last 4, they have been within two or three points. the other thing that happens, 35 years ago, 80% of the people lived in the target states that people concentrate on in these campaigns. california was a target state. texas was a target state. new york was a target state. today, less than 20% live in the target states. because of that situation, 49-49 situation, that's going to be very difficult. we could have this conversation for anyboy to govern.
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we need to take a quick break. when we come back -- what to watch on election night. and all the talk about chris christie. i would like to give a sincere thanks to president obama on how he handled the situation. on election day i'm going to pick governor romney. if i had to pick one guy to have my back, president obama you have been amazing. such a leader. again, i'll be a good soldier i'm going to vote for romney but i'm going to hate it. i'm going to hate it. [ female announcer ] the power to become a better investor has gone mobile.
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lots more roundtable after this from our abc stations. this from our abc stations. privately-owned freight railroads plan to spen$23 billion on their network. that's like building 4 nat's stadiums, 5 wilson bridges, and 8 dc convention centers...all in one year. and not a penny of it comes from taxpayers. so, maybe you're trying to fiwell, let me give it a shot. if you're ok with marylanders spending five hundred and... fifty llion a year gaming in other states, fair enough. but if you think we should keep that money here...
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twd twelve thousand jobs, and generate millions for schools... well you should probably ve for question seven. because if it doesn't pass, all of this goes away. that's why the post called seven, common sense. but decide for yourself. freight railroads plan to spend $23 billion on their network. that's like launching 4 mars rovers, 10 gps satellites, and 20 space shuttles ...all in one year. and not a penny of it comes from taxpayers. ♪ i have shown my willingness to work with anybody of any party to move this country forward. and if you want to break the gridlock in congress, you'll vote for leaders who are -- whether they're
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republicans, democrats or independents who feel the same way. >> i'll meet with congress regularly. i'll endeavor to find those good men and good women on both sides of aisle who care more about the country than about politics. after a bitter campaign, both candidates promising bipartisanship if they're elected. i'm back here with roundtable. george will, probably the biggest display of bipartisanship this week, those photos of governor chris christie and president obama touring the storm damage. how much a difference did that make? >> anything that gives the president a chance to look presidential and all presidents go to disaster areas, it's not a unique policy on the part of president obama, but then to have him with a man that displays republican partisanship it obviously couldn't hurt. >> lot of republicans grumbling about governor christie. >> you had hour sane sandy and
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then youd that christie bear hug. the bear hug did more than his handing of the hurricane. you had a guy more engaged with the president and the major of new york city, that i think, an iconic figure did more for him. and i think there's a lot of republicans out there that are thinking, wow, did you really have to go that far? >> what's interesting about this bipartisan business, at the same time, that the candidates are closing with this and thinking that this is the way to appeal to the american people and americans say they are for this. and many more people identify as independents than ever before. at the same time that's happening, we have this pol polarizing electorate? what does the country really want?
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bipartisanship or killing each other? >> not only that, you have the congress increasingly behaving, the highest line of party-line voting. if you look at the polls, george, this week, this month, in the key senate races at least 80% of the people voting for obama and almost all contested races are voting for democrat. it's up to 90% correlation in virginia, ohio, wisconsin. so, enormous pressure on members to stand either with or against the president. >> i want to talk about what that means for whoever gets elected. but let's focus on, we still have an election two days away. let's start with ohio and donna brazile, i'll come to you on this. 11 out of the last 12 polls have the president with a small lead. in the past, and ron brownstein has used this term, ohio has been heartbreak hill for the candidates. at the very end, it slips away. does the president have what it takes to prevent that? >> absolutely.
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i believe he's up a percentage point or two. the rescue of the auto industry has helped him. 1 out of 8 ohio voters have a -- some affiliation with the auto industry. all of that combined, i think he has a terrific ground game. i know that republicans discount this whole notion that he can win on the ground in three days. i used to tell our democratic guru, that, if you just leave me $10 in the last 48 hours, i can make up 2 to 3 percentage points. in the race here, the obama team will make up at least 3 to 4 percentage points on the ground. >> ohio, it's ground zero for suffering in the age of globalization. they lost, in first decade of this century, they lost 600,000 manufacturing jobs. they have one of the worst records in the country of keeping their college graduates in their state. they have the fewest congressmen since the civil war. so it's a state in decline. but, it's also participating in the recovery, somewhat, because
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of the policies touted by and bragged about by a republican governor. >> the signs of the democratic advantage actually started to show up in 2004. in they switched their vote, john kerry would have won ohio, lost the popular vote. those signs, ohio state is a state like pennsylvania, used to be a swing state in my view, but the dynamics of ohio are now moving to a place where it's no longer quote, unquote a reliable republican state. it's now moving in a direction, much more akin to pennsylvania than the other states. >> the electoral college does shift. people complain, as you said earlier, new york is not in play. california is not in play. but the truth is, it does shift, and so the different states rise up in different elections and become the focus of attention. and it really does make it an election where the whole country has to be paid attention to.
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>> only two democrats have reached 50% of the vote in ohio since 1940. ohio exemplifies the paradox of how this is unfolding. 32% among noncollege white men and 39% among noncollege white women nationally in our abc tracking poll through the whole run. in ohio he's ten points better among both of those groups. the bain story, the bain story has a cultural and emotional resonance in the midwest. ohio, the idea of the rich guy coming to town, shutting down a factory and taking the profits, it resonates. it detonates. >> george, that early spending in ohio on those bain ads? >> if it works, mr. obama will
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probably have a mandate not to be bain capital. but, there's another side of this, also, mitt romney may have been the guy that shut down some plants. barack obama is the man who came to town and tried to shut down the coal industry. ohio, pennsylvania, important states where coal matters and it will be interesting to see in southwest ohio how -- >> at this point in time, in the campaign, in the aftermath of hurricane sandy and what happened in the forces, with almost believing that climate change is bringing this, the argument that romney won't be making at this time, his environmental policies are going to affect the coal country. it's not an argument that romney wants to make. >> the most common plant on war on coal, fire obama. are there enough people to overcome what is -- >> if the president has an advantage in ohio, even if it's small one, that puts more
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pressure on governor romney to do better in one of two states, donna, wisconsin or this late play for pennsylvania? >> and i think it's a foolish gamble. because, i mean, john mccain did that four years ago, he tried to go to pennsylvania and stir up a lot of last-minute support. it wasn't there. president obama has a strong lead in pennsylvania in large part the volunteers there -- but, george, we won the state by ten points last time. i think the suburbs that mitt romney is relying on aren't going to come out and support. >> well, because of women. this is a place, pennsylvania is the perfect place where this is a problem, because you have those philadelphia suburbs and that's where all of this conversation about contraception and rape and all of that is having a hold. and, you know, it's very interesting, because women haven't voted on those issues. they have voted on economic issues. but when you ask african-americans and hispanics the issues they vote on, they
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vote for the economy. they have turned off to republicans because of rights. i think women are having the same reaction this time around. women are beginning to feel unwelcome in the republican party and if that happens that's a big problem. >> lot of republicans think about pennsylvania. they think of lucy and the football. it always looks good. but it's never there. in 2010, the republicans elected a governor, 12 out of 19 congressmen, elected -- >> the big reason in 2008 barack obama won those four suburban counties outside of philadelphia by a combined 200,000 votes. they moved. if question is, in this election, as in northern virginia and in the suburbs of colorado, can obama hold those college-educated white women on noneconomic issues? >> pennsylvania play -- if mitt romney was ahead in
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ohio, there would be no play that they're doing in pennsylvania. i will take the philadelphia eagles to win the super bowl this year sooner than i would take mitt romney to win pennsylvania. >> david axelrod is going to shave his mustache. >> one thing that we probably could all agree on, early in the evening when the results come in for bucks county around philadelphia, we'll probably know. >> i want to get to something else. we also already know two states especially, three states, so much of the vote is in. 70% of the vote already in, in colorado. 70% of the vote already in, in nevada. more than 40% of the vote already in, in iowa. two of the three states, george, right now, president in nevada and iowa, has built up a pretty strong. >> we have been saying this all year long, this is a mobilization election. the early voting indicates that both sides are doing well. it will be a marginal difference that decides this election. >> but, you know, when we talk about these sort of traditional
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things, i think the two parties are looking at two different electorate. the republicans, as you heard earlier, looking at independent voters, that makes all the sense in the world. but this year, with things so polarized, the democrats are looking at ethnic groups. nonwhites and women. it's really a question which electorate -- >> but the other thing -- >> talking about moving independents -- the denominator is changing the composition of the election. >> you know, i was shocked when i went up to chicago a few months ago, back in the day when matt and i was running campaigns. >> i had hair. >> yes. the fields department was the biggest. now it's the analytic. they know who voted in 2008, didn't show up in 2010. that's why they have been able to double the registrations.
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and early voting. >> independents are not -- 30% we feel are independents aren't really independents. only about 5%, 6% that are independents. they already picked their tribe. the theory that every time that romney folks say this, they say look at the independents in that poll we're winning them. but don't look at the overall number in the poll because we're losing. >> the independent voters are going to make a difference. it's going to matter in the end. when you say that the candidates have 80% or 90% of the presidential vote, there's still that 10% to 20%. >> nevada is also, we have to say indicative of something else here. we're talking about this enormous racial polarization. democrats clearly have a problem with whites. but republicans are looking to lose again 80% of this growing
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nonwhite population. mitt romney in a country, that's almost 40% nonwhite, is relying on for 90% of his votes. >> divides at every level that exists. >> what's the message of that to republicans if that happens on election day? if he wins 60 or 59. >> what does that mean, george will, what does mean for whoever wins coming in the day after, almost certain to face to kind of a very similar lineup in white house? washington? republicans in control of the house. democrats probably in control of the senate. what does this mean for the next president? >> you just answered the question in posing it. the country is supposedly saving the status quo and poised to
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replicate it. that is, washington on the morning after, particularly if obama wins and the democrats hold the senate, it will be washington as it is today only more so. >> except t that there are some issues that have to be dealt with, that's the question, whether or not people will say, this election is behind us and let's deal with some of these issues. >> the dysfunction that's going to be even more exacerbated with a president elected with no mandate, no real vision and no real majority. the political system is broken. people feel no ability to sort -- they feel like they have to choose between alternatives that they don't really like within the course of this. >> i disagree. i don't think the political system is broken. i think it's working beautifully. it's a representative system. >> george, it's absolutely broken.
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>> it struggles to deal with party-line unity. especially when you consider in 2004, george bush, a campaign you helped won, won the narrow est margin victorvictory. obama, 2 1/2 points feels pretty good. i'm actually -- i'm with you. i'm not totally pessimistic about doing the big vote on the budget. in 2013. like 1973, when they sent back divided government. looking forward, the question is, when the country is so closely divided and the parties are so deeply divided how do we function? >> donna. >> in 2010, after that election, even that was a contentious election. the president was able to muster support the republicans and democrats to extend the bush tax cuts the payroll -- >> i was struck this week to read, that actually liberals seem to be getting a touch more nervous of president obama
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winning. they want him to win. they're a little bit nervous that he's going to sell out to the republicans on the budget. >> well, they're worried about the grand bargain being a grand attack on entitlements at the expense of, you know, extending the bush tax cuts for another two, four years. >> look, if he does what he says he's going to do, that's going to happen, not the bush tax cuts for everyone. but certainly entitlements will be addressed. >> and the democrats are really pushing the payroll tax cuts. >> he'll losing four years of his presidency if re-elected. going back to 2008 to what he said, when he was elected, to the bring the country together. he should, within 24 hours reach
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out and we can't allow this to happen. >> we'll go back to the deal that he negotiated with john boehner, the big question will be, if he wins, the question will be, whether boehner would be willing to bring it up without the support of a majority of the republicans? it probably won't happen. if he wins in 2013. >> more likely to do that than previous speakers. >> he didn't mean it in 2008. he wouldn't mean it in 2012. the reason the country is divided. one candidate wants more government, more taxes and more redistribution of income. the other wants less of all three. dissolve the electorate and elect the new electorate. >> again, we still have an election on tuesday. i want you to talk about other things that you're going to be watching for through the night on tuesday? >> to me i'm going to focus on this historic divide that we're going to see an unbelievable thing, what you're going to see in this election, in the run-up to this,
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is young versus old. black versus white. single women versus married women. the geography issue, the west coast versus east coast. and that incredible divide and faith. divided by spirituality. people who go to church every sunday and people who believe in god but don't go to church every week. we talked about our political divide. but that culture divide that exists in this country, somebody is going have to address. >> george, of course, i'm going to focus on the whole issue of voter intimidation. voter suppression. because, as you well know, 23 states tried to impose burdensome rules -- >> many rejected. >> rejected, but there is still a lot of confusion. a lot of confusion. and look, we might -- when i think about florida, my blood pressure raises. but this is going to be a very close election. clearly, in some of those states where we have had this
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contentious battle on voter i.d., that's something i'll watch for on tuesday. >> whites vote one way and bl k blacks vote another way. race relations in this country. we can't postulate a national crisis from this kind of demographic result in the voting. i'll watch for the proposition. proposition 30 in california. 1 in 8 americans live in that state. they're being asked to solve their problem, by raising their taxes. if they don't do that, the big issue of 2013 is going to be a number of blue states, california, illinois, new york, coming to washington trying to offload their debts on the american taxpayers. and that will be a fight that no one will be anticipating. if that proposition goes down -- >> keep an eye on gary johnson, the libertarian candidate. >> who knows, he's on 48 ballots. in colorado for example, they're voting on legalizing marijuana.
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he may be the only candidate in history that handed out marijuana rolling paper. the question is -- the question is really, in colorado, is he going to take more votes away from romney or from the libertarians who are going to try to legalize marijuana. >> i'm going to watch women. i think -- i'm very curious to know, whether this year, republicans have done to women, what they have done to hispanics and blacks. voter i.d. is contributing to that. >> upscale women. >> yes. >> two kritd call questions? what is the minority share of the vote? what is the white share of the vote? does the minority share of the vote continues to grow? the president is running better in the upper midwest than anywhere else. >> okay, we'll come back with your predictions in just a minute. that is coming right up. minute. that is coming right up. i'm a conservative investor.
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read and consider it carefully before investing. we're back now with election we're back now with election predictions. i predict a pass because i'm anchoring on tuesday night. >> you can't pass.
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>> george will, you go first. >> i forgot my exact number. i guess you have a graphic here. i guess the wild card in what i projected i'm projects minnesota to go to romney. to romney the only state of the union. mondale held it when reagan was getting 49 states. the only state that's voted democratic in nine consecutive elections. but this year, there's a marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals. and i think they'll make the difference. >> i think i said 294 for obama. and that's because i didn't give him colorado. he couldn't get them all. at some point, the law of averages kick in. but i did give him virginia. iowa, i don't think we could call a big state. >> i believe obama will win the narrowest margin of popular vote
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victory for any re-elected president. in the electoral college, i have him at 288. the one thing that i feel strongest on, nevada, wisconsin, ohio, romney hasn't shown that he can break through there. >> i have electoral college similar. 303 for barack obama. that's been a stable number. the one thing -- i also predicted a very, very close win on to popular vote. i'm not as confident in that as i am in the electoral college. there's still a chance that it's divided. >> particularly in new york and new jersey, maybe not getting to the polls. >> i think i gave president obama 313. i have been going back and forth between 303 and 313. i'm still worried about some clearly, north carolina. the other thing that, in order
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for mitt romney to win, he has to have a large turnout on tuesday, and 6 out of 10 people voting must support him just to overcome the huge numbers that president obama has wracked up. i believe that president obama will eke it out barely. >> it's going to be a tight race. very quickly 20 seconds left. anybody see republicans taking control of the senate? >> no. >> i think they pick up two seats or one, depending on how the caucus is. >> i predict that the next presidential race starts wednesday. for all of you at home go to abcnews.com/thisweek to submit your predictions. tune in next sunday to see got it right. plus, donna and matt are standing by to answer your questions on twitter. and now, we honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice.
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this week, the pentagon released the names of two service members killed in afghanistan. and we'll be right back with a look ahead to this week. [ male announcer ] you're not the type of person who sets goals and only hopes to achieve them. so you'll be happy to know that when it comes to your investment goals, northern trust uses award-winning expertise to lead you through an interactive investment process. adding precision to your portfolio construction by directly matching your assets and your risk preferences against your unique life goals. we call it goals driven investing. your life has a sense of purpose.
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look, the reason i'm in this race isis there are people thatre really hurting today in this country. and we facece this deficit -- could crush the fututure generations. and republicans and democrats both love america but we need to have leadership -- leadership in washington that will actually bring people together and get the job done and could not care less if it's a republican or a democrat. i've done it before, i'll do it again. i'm mitt romney, and i appro vethis message.
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that's all for us today. thanks for sharing part of your sunday with us. check out "world news" with david muir tonight and all day tomorrow on abc, a day of giving, all of our programs starting with "good morning america" will be joining a call to action to help those affected by hurricane sandy. for more information on how you can help, please visit abcnews.com. tuesday night, diane sawyer and i will be at the headquarters for live coverage of your voice your vote 2012. it begins at 7:00 eastern and continues all night long. so much coming up and i'll see you tomorrow on "good morning america." you tomorrow on "good morning america." man: to some people, social security is just a number.
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t but to me, it's money that i earned. i count on social security. and i don't want washington politicians like george allen... privatizing it. if george allen wants to risk his own money on wall street... that's fine. but i don't want him risking mine. george allen just isn't watching out for us. anncr: the democratic senatorial campaign committee is...